Earthquakes & Housing Prices
Apr. 29th, 2004 10:36 amI was talking with one of the Bay Area earthquake geologists this AM and took the opportunity to ask her the question that came up some weeks ago about whether or not housing prices in Calif. dropped after the Loma Prieta and Northridge earthquakes. Here's her answer:
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My site doesn't have that info - but I know what happened. Basically, in a disaster, housing units are damaged and destroyed so there is less supply which tends to drive up prices. However, people also can leave, which tends to drive prices down. The Northridge earthquake hit at a depression in the LA housing market due to job losses in the defense industry. The vacancy rate at the time was 10%. The quake caused 48,000 housing units to be uninhabitable, largely in apartments, right at the time when people were thinking about leaving the area to get jobs elsewhere. The quake was the last straw for many to leave, and people in apartments took advantage of a TEMPORARY drop in housing prices to grab up undamaged homes (leaving, in many cases, damaged apartments). Then lots of folks in damaged apartments moved to undamaged apartments. When I went down there about three weeks after! the quake, the "Northridge Moving and Storage" vans were everywhere. In Loma Prieta, there really wasn't any significant impact on housing prices (that is, the factors pushing prices up roughly balanced those driving prices down). The other big "winner" besides moving companies is contractors!
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My site doesn't have that info - but I know what happened. Basically, in a disaster, housing units are damaged and destroyed so there is less supply which tends to drive up prices. However, people also can leave, which tends to drive prices down. The Northridge earthquake hit at a depression in the LA housing market due to job losses in the defense industry. The vacancy rate at the time was 10%. The quake caused 48,000 housing units to be uninhabitable, largely in apartments, right at the time when people were thinking about leaving the area to get jobs elsewhere. The quake was the last straw for many to leave, and people in apartments took advantage of a TEMPORARY drop in housing prices to grab up undamaged homes (leaving, in many cases, damaged apartments). Then lots of folks in damaged apartments moved to undamaged apartments. When I went down there about three weeks after! the quake, the "Northridge Moving and Storage" vans were everywhere. In Loma Prieta, there really wasn't any significant impact on housing prices (that is, the factors pushing prices up roughly balanced those driving prices down). The other big "winner" besides moving companies is contractors!